Futurecasts confirmed:

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There have already been many examples of developments proceeding along lines predicted by FUTURECASTS - often to the surprise of many of the "authoritative voices" that dominate intellectual discourse.

  Some particularly noteworthy examples:

• The political impact of severe economic disruptions have been widely feared - and with good reason. Nevertheless, the forces highlighted by FUTURECASTS that spur the continued spread of democratic systems have broadly succeeded. Isn't it interesting that the most characteristic political impact of the Asian Contagion and similar economic crises has been the peaceful exchange of political power in accordance with reasonably fair elections in such unlikely places as Indonesia, Russia, Taiwan, South Korea, and Mexico. The states spun off from Yugoslavia have also now experienced such peaceful exchanges of power after long periods of economic hardship and military conflict. Once again, the skeptics have underestimated democratic electorates.
• Various forms of limitations on governmental powers continue to spread. Democracies increasingly depend on independent judicial tribunals for administrative and constitutional review - and commercial law is increasingly being left in the hands of independent tribunals even in authoritarian states. The European Union has two independent supranational tribunals - the European Court of Justice with jurisdiction over treaty disputes, and the European Court of Human Rights with jurisdiction over human rights questions - and the World Trade Organization has had substantial - albeit not total - success in resolving trade disputes.
• Capitalism has continued its worldwide conquest of economic policy. Although much remains to be done, a wide variety of nations have continued to enact significant economic reforms, opening up their economic systems, and creating political, legal and economic environments conducive to capitalist commerce. Many third world nations have even opened their banking systems to foreign ownership. All around the world, efforts are being made to provide stock markets that enable successful startups to "go public" and raise the funds they need for expansion.
• The Euro, the internet, and the need to be competitive in global markets, have loosed competitive pressures in Europe that are forcing rationalization of economic policies. Tax levels are coming down, and restraints on part-time and temporary employment are being reduced to increase needed labor market flexibility. Financial markets are being integrated.
• The Asian Contagion was proclaimed by some economists, like MIT Prof. Paul Krugman, as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. FUTURECASTS was definitely under whelmed. In fact, the most notable feature of the crisis was the speed of recovery - occurring so fast that pressures for needed reforms were seriously undermined - leaving the area still dangerously exposed to future financial reverses.
• Japan has continued to resist politically unpleasant reforms - although some progress has slowly - reluctantly - been made. Instead, it has continued to primarily rely - unsuccessfully - on Keynesian efforts at massive deficit  spending and radically low interest rates in its decade long struggle with economic malaise. Here, too - as FUTURECASTS has frequently pointed out - reality has perversely refused to conform to Keynesian expectations.
• The cornucopia of expanding wealth continues to flow over the American people, and spin off vast sums for government purposes.
• The politics of budget surplus have replaced the politics of budget deficits. Government programs and government budgets are exploding at the state level - under both Democratic and Republican administrations - and the same is happening at the federal level - sharply confirming FUTURECASTS expectations that "the era of big government" will exuberantly continue.
• Problems with reduced lending standards are now surfacing in higher loan default rates for many banks.
• Problems with deteriorating military readiness were confirmed by intelligence failures in the War on Terror and lack of sufficient "boots on the ground" during the occupation of Iraq.
• The political response to judicial activism is also reflected in recent presidential election campaigns as control over the Supreme Court becomes a serious issue - and in the 2000 election, even the Democrats found reason to complain.

Alarmists and Utopians:
(from Vol. 2, No. 2, 9/1/99)

•   Utopian expectations that the business cycle will be rendered obsolete, and that technology will free the world from the need to work will - of course - not be realized. Capitalism is not an utopian concept. It cannot - and doesn't presume to - provide utopian results. It is merely - by a considerable margin - the best way to organize economic activity, and the only system that provides the flexibility and dynamism essential to keep pace with the accelerating rate of technological change.
• Government and private propensities to mismanage affairs will continue unabated.
• Terrorism - remains an obvious problem. The reduction in terrorist activity after the end of Cold War Soviet support has now been replaced by a sharp increase with the advent of militant Muslim support.

  This does not mean that there are not reasons for considerable optimism. Some very good things are presently happening in the world.

• The population explosion - the key to so many prospects for the second half of the 21st century - will be brought under control by such factors as the electric light bulb, television - and the increasing availability of education for girls.
• Depletion of non-renewable energy sources - will be taken care of by capitalist markets - easily - unless governments get in the way.
• Widespread military conflicts - have in fact been greatly reduced and confined to minor nations and a few remaining hot spots.
• Food shortages - are widespread in only those states that are involved in conflicts or suffer under governments that do not facilitate capitalist market mechanisms.
• The arms race - has in fact been reversed in all of the major world powers.
• Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction - is an obvious problem - but possession of such weapons has so far had the primary effect of concentrating minds on the horrors of modern warfare. But terrorist cannot be similarly restrained and will prove a difficult problem.
• Nationalism, protectionism and isolationism - remain serious problems - but are actually in substantial retreat before the forces of capitalism and globalization.
• Deficit spending by governments -  is increasingly  viewed once again as harmful - although many third world nations still desperately need relief from past excesses and the recent recession drove most major nations again heavily into debt.
• Moral decay - has been asserted and deplored since at least the end of the last Ice Age.
• The big rock will not soon fall from the sky - and if it does come after the middle of the century, we will be technologically capable of destroying or diverting it.

  Nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, bioengineering and other exotic technologies will undoubtedly revolutionize life during the 21st century. However, it can confidently be predicted that basic principles of economics will remain intact throughout the 21st century.